Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

4.5.5 Increasing demand for energy and natural resources

the energy consumption. A baseline scenario of energy consumption may lead to global average temperatures approaching 5°C towards the end of the century, with much larger variation in some regions (perhaps double this in the Arctic). A mitigation scenario may keep global average temperatures below 2°C over the century (again, roughly double this in the Arctic). Another important feature of the climate system is that it takes time for a given GHG emission to lead to maximum temperature change (a decade or so). As a consequence, temperatures in 2030 are already set by past activities, with society having an opportunity to alter temperature trajectories only towards the end of the century (Clarke et al., 2014). TheOECDEnvironmentalOutlook to 2050,whichdemonstrates the consequences of no new policies and continuing socio- economic trends, projects that world energy use in 2050 will be 80% higher than today, while the share of fossil-fuel based energy in the global energy mix will be about 85% (OECD, 2012b). By 2050, the world is also set to consume three times more natural resources (UNEP, 2011). There will be an increasing dematerialization and decoupling between economic growth and use of resources, but freshwater, food, fossil fuels, and many minerals and metals will become scarcer. The current path of socio-economic development has significant environmental consequences. Rapid population growth and carbon-powered economic growth lead to climate change, increasing levels of pollution, degradation of ecosystems, and irreversible biodiversity loss. The basic life- sustaining processes of the planet are clearly at risk (IPCC, 2014) and the ability of ecosystems to provide services and sustain future generations cannot be assumed (Millennium EcosystemAssessment, 2005). Even with a growing awareness of the environmental and climate challenges, the effects of global warming will be unevenly distributed.Vulnerable poor societies and communities that have contributed the least to the problem are likely to suffer the most.

A growing world population and economy will demand more energy. In the New Policies Scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2015), which takes account of broad policy commitments and agreed national plans, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, global energy demand is expected to grow by a third between 2013 and 2040. All the net growth will come from non-OECD countries. The links between global economic growth, energy demand and energy-related emissions will weaken, but unless urgent action is taken to curb GHG emissions, fossil fuels will still account for almost three-quarters of primary energy supply in 2040. Until now, renewable energy sources have mainly been added to the energy mix without replacing fossil fuels (York, 2012). In the New Policies Scenario, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions will be 16% higher in 2040 than in 2013. The IPCC AR5 scenarios (Clarke et al., 2014) show that scenarios following a baseline have slightly higher economic activity than scenarios that keep global average temperatures below 2°C.This suggests that climate policy will have limited impact on economic activity, but that climate and other policies will have significant impact on resource consumption per economic activity. In general, all scenarios assume that primary energy consumption will grow more slowly than economic activity due to continued improvement in energy efficiency. The assumed efficiency improvements are much greater for mitigation scenarios than for baseline scenarios. Importantly, the source of primary energy consumption (e.g. fossil fuel versus renewable energy) varies in different scenarios, such that a given energy consumption can lead to much lower levels of climate change. Energy consumption ultimately leads to GHG emissions dependent on the underlying energy mix. Hence, it will lead to further global warming of a magnitude that depends on the character of

Ole Martin Nilsen/OMN foto

Abandoned coal mine, Svalbard