Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Chapter 4 · Physical and socio-economic environment

4.5.4 Accelerating technological change and worldwide interconnectedness Technological change is a major driver of economic growth and societal transformation. The globalization processes have been spurred on by new technology and have themselves increased the pace of technological change, which is currently at an unprecedented level. New advances and convergence in the fields of microelectronics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, sophisticated productionmethods and software are accelerating the rate of change and disruption. In the future,‘smart’ sensors and actuators,‘big data’,intelligent robots,unmanned vehicles,3D printing, and advanced materials will play an ever greater role. Devices and systems will be connected in the‘Internet of things’, enabling a range of objects to collect and exchange data (DASTI, 2016; OECD,2016b).Digitalization and automationwill remove the need formany jobs.At the same time,new jobs will be created. Technological change will give rise to new business models, including the sharing of access to goods and services, and will transformhealth,education,communication,andways of living. Technological change will also increase worldwide inter- connectedness and interdependence. As networks and interactions become more extensive and intensive, time and space are compressed and the world shrinks (Harvey, 1989). This implies that events in one part of the world can create large and unintentional consequences for people inmany other areas of the globe. The global financial markets are already strongly integrated. More and more challenges will become boundary-spanning and require coordinated efforts and joint, international solutions. Technological change will continue to alter the spatial organization of activities. Over recent decades, there has been a rapid development of global production networks and value chains.Stages within production processes have been unbundled, outsourced, and located in places that can offer special advantages.With the help of new technology, it is expected that

some production, which until now has been transferred to low- wage countries, can be relocated to today’s advanced economies (Brynjolfsson andMcAfee,2014).But new centers of innovation and technology are also developing in the fast-growing countries of Asia and LatinAmerica.As a consequence, product cycles are shortening and competition is increasing. The small, open Nordic economies have historically been quick to adapt to new economic and technological conditions. This has been possible due to a well-educated workforce, constant upgrading of infrastructure, traditions of co-determination, a high level of trust, and advanced social security systems. These countries are thus assumed to be well positioned to meet future technological changes and the challenges associated with the globalizing knowledge economy.They will attempt to remain in the high-technology andhigh value-added end of the value chains andmaintain theirwelfare states and an inclusiveworking lifewith a high level of employment. However, there is concern about an increasing polarization of labormarkets (Autor,2010; Goos et al., 2010). A sharing economy may provide new opportunities, but when routine tasks and low-skilled jobs disappear this can lead to greater income disparity.The Russian Federation follows another model andwill probably face far greater challenges inmodernizing its economy and governance systems. Accelerating technological change may have different effects in the Barents area. On the one hand, an increasing number of activities are becoming less dependent on distance. Accessibility is increasing and new businesses can be established in remote areas, provided the Internet services are of sufficient quality. On the other hand, new technology also enables a higher level of automation and enhanced steering at distance. New mega-projects do not necessarily mean increased settlement in the region. Instead, workers may be flown in and out for a limited construction and operation period.This model already characterizes several of the oil and gas projects in the Yamalo-Nenets AO.

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Unmanned aircraft systems (‘drones’) are used to support environmental monitoring in the Arctic