Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

The report aims to enable more informed, timely, and responsive decision-making at the local and regional level by integrating knowledge across different regions and fields of expertise.

AMAP 2017

ADAPTAT ION ACT IONS FOR A CHANGING ARCT IC PERSPECT I VES FROM THE BARENTS AREA

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)

Educational use: This report (in part or in its entirety) and other AMAP products available fromwww.amap.no can be used freely as teaching materials and for other educational purposes. Theonly conditionof suchuse is acknowledgement ofAMAPas the sourceof thematerial according to the recommendedcitation. In case of questions regarding educational use, please contact the AMAP Secretariat (amap@amap.no). Note: This report may contain material (e.g. photographs) for which permission for use will need to be obtained from original copyright holders.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this peer-reviewed report are the responsibility of the authors of the report and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Arctic Council, its members or its observers.

AMAP 2017 Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Oslo, 2017

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

AMAP 2017 Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

Citation AMAP, 2017. Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway. xiv + 267pp ISBN –13 978-82-7971-102-5 © Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 2017 Published by Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway. (www.amap.no) Ordering This report can be ordered from the AMAP Secretariat, Gaustadalléen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway This report is also published as electronic documents, available from the AMAP website at www.amap.no Production Production management Julia Tchernova and Jon L. Fuglestad (AMAP Secretariat) Editing Carolyn Symon (carolyn.symon@btinternet.com) Technical production Burnthebook, United Kingdom (www.burnthebook.co.uk) Jane White and Simon Duckworth (Burnthebook) Cover photograph Mountains of Longyearbyen at sunset, Svalbard ginger_polina_bublik/Shutterstock.com Printing Narayana Press, Gylling, DK-8300 Odder, Denmark (www.narayanapress.dk)

AMAPWorking Group (during period of preparation of this assessment) Martin Forsius (Chair, Finland), Morten Olsen (Vice-Chair, Denmark), Sarah Kalhok (Canada), Mikala Klint (Denmark), Outi Mähönen (Finland),Helgi Jensson (Iceland),Marianne Kroglund (Vice-Chair,Norway), Tove Lundeberg (Sweden),Yuri Tsaturov (Vice-Chair, Russia), J.Michael Kuperberg (United States), Eva Krummel (Inuit Circumpolar Council), Jannie Staffansson (Saami Council), Bob van Dijken (Arctic Athabaskan Council) AMAP Secretariat Lars-Otto Reiersen, SimonWilson, Jon L. Fuglestad, Julia Tchernova, Jan-Rene Larsen, Janet Pawlak, Inger Utne Arctic Council Member States and Permanent Participants of the Council Canada, Kingdom of Denmark,Denmark/Greenland/Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland,Norway, Russia, Sweden,United States,Aleut International Association (AIA), Arctic Athabaskan Council (AAC), Gwitch’in Council International (GCI), Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC), Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON), Saami Council Coordinating Lead Authors (see chapters for complete author overview) Marianne Kroglund, Tove Lundeberg, Monica Tennberg, Anna Degteva, Helene Amundsen, Peter Arbo, Ingrid Bay-Larsen, Rasmus Benestad, Philip Burgess,Marcus Carson,Wenche Eide, Grete Kaare Hovelsrud,Vladimir Ivanov, E. Carina H. Keskitalo, Kit Kovacs, SveinMathiesen,Annika E. Nilsson,Anders Oskal, Glen Peters,Martin Sommerkorn,Minna Turunen, Seija Tuulentie

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Contents

Preface � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � vii Executive Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ix 1. Introduction and framing issues � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1 1.1 What can be done to prepare for changes in the Arctic? � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1 1.2 Need for local and regional perspectives and responses � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1 1.3 Outline of the Barents area report � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2 1.4 Way forward � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3 2. Status of the natural and human environments � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5 2.1 Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5 2.2 Natural environment � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 6 2.2.1 Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 6 2.2.2 Marine ecosystems � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 12 2.2.3 Invasive alien species in terrestrial and marine environments � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 20 2.3 Socio-economic environment and resource use � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 21 2.3.1 Population and employment � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 22 2.3.2 Multi-level regulation and planning � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 25 2.3.3 Physical infrastructure and tourism � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 26 2.3.4 Energy � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 28 2.3.5 Mining � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 29 2.3.6 Multi-use areas: forestry, environmental protection and reindeer husbandry � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 30 2.3.7 Agriculture � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 32 2.3.8 Shipping, fisheries and aquaculture � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 32 2.4 Summary and conclusions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 35 Acknowledgments � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 36 References � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 36 3. 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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Synthesis � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 253 10.1 Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 253 10.1.1 Regional policy commitments � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 254 10.1.2 Global climate policy commitments: UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 254 10.1.3 The goals of adaptation � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 254 10.2 Adaptation in context � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 256 10.2.1 Social context � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 259 10.3 What processes are needed to support future adaptation? � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 261 10.3.1 Adaptation as a social process � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 261 10.3.2 Mainstreaming adaptation � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 264 10.3.3 Taking uncertainty to heart � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 264 10.4 Implications for decision-makers and further research � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 264 References � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 265 Acronyms and abbreviations � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 267

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Preface

Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. Related assessment summary reports have therefore been developed specifically for decision makers, summarizing the main key messages from the Barents regional report. The assessment lead authors have confirmed that both this report and its derivative products accurately and fully reflect their scientific assessment. All AMAP assessment reports are freely available from the AMAP Secretariat and on the AMAP website (www. amap.no) and their use for educational purposes is encouraged. AMAP would like to express its appreciation to all experts who have contributed their time, efforts and data, in particular the coordinating lead authors for each of the chapters in this report.Thanks are also due to the reviewers who contributed to the peer-review process and provided valuable comments that helped to ensure the quality of the report.A list of coordinating lead authors is included in the acknowledgements at the start of this report and all authors are identified at the start of each chapter. The acknowledgements list is not comprehensive. Specifically, it does not include the many national institutes and organizations, and their staff, which have been involved in the various countries. Apologies, and no lesser thanks are given to any individuals unintentionally omitted from the list. The support from theArctic countries and non-Arctic countries implementing research and monitoring in the Arctic is vital to the success of AMAP.The AMAP work is essentially based on ongoing activities within these countries, and the countries that provide the necessary support formost of the experts involved in the preparation of theAMAP assessments. In particular,AMAP would like to acknowledge Finland,Norway,Russia and Sweden for taking the lead country role in this assessment. AMAP would also like to thank the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the Government of Finland’s analysis, assessment and research activities; the Ministry for ForeignAffairs of Finland; the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency; the Nordic Council of Ministers and the Norwegian Research Council for financial support to the assessment work. AMAP further acknowledge and appreciate the in-kind contribution to the project from the authors and their employers. TheAMAPWorking Group is pleased to present its assessment to theArctic Council and the international science community. Marianne Kroglund (Assessment Co-chair, Norway) Tove Lundeberg (Assessment Co-chair, Sweden) Monica Tennberg (Assessment Co-chair, Finland) Anna Degteva (Assessment Co-chair, Russia) Martin Forsius (AMAP Chair, April 2017) Lars-Otto Reiersen (AMAP Executive Secretary) Oslo, September 2017

This report presents the results of the 2017AMAPAssessment of AdaptationActions for a ChangingArctic (AACA): Perspectives from the Barents Area . This is one of the three pilot study regions included in theAACA project.AACA is the first AMAP assessment dealing with adaptation actions and how to meet possible Arctic futures in these times of rapid change. There are two other pilot study areas included in the AACA-C project.The first is the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort region, which includes the ChukotkaAutonomous Okrug in Russia, northern parts of Alaska and western Canada and adjacent marine areas and the second is the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region involving West Greenland, the eastern part of Nunavut in Canada and Baffin Bay/Davis Strait between these land masses. These pilot studies are the Part C of the total AACA project. AACA-A involved an overviewof Arctic Council working group reports which could be used as background information for adaptationwork,whileAACA-B involved an overviewof already implemented adaptations in the Arctic Council member states. TheArcticMonitoring andAssessment Programme (AMAP) is a working group under the Arctic Council.The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: •• enable more informed, timely and responsive policy and decision making related to adaptation action in a rapidly changing Arctic •• produce information to assist local decision makers and stakeholders in three pilot regions in developing adaptation tools and strategies to better deal with climate change and other pertinent environmental stressors. This report provides the accessible scientific basis and validation for the statements made in the AACA Barents Area – Overview Report that was delivered to theArctic Council Ministers at their meeting in Fairbanks, Alaska, USA 11 May 2017. This science report includes extensive background data and references to the scientific literature and whereas the overview report contains statements about foundations for adaptations that focus mainly on policy-relevant actions concerned with options on how to adapt to projected Arctic futures, the conclusions and key messages presented in this report also cover issues of a more scientific nature. This assessment of adaptation perspectives for the Barents area was conducted between 2013 and 2016 by an international group of experts. Coordinating lead authors were appointed following an open nomination process coordinated by AMAP. The peer-review process involving independent international experts was organized by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC). Information contained in this report is fully referenced and based first and foremost on peer-reviewed and published results of research andmonitoring undertaken within the past decade. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed material.

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Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

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Executive Summary to the report on Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents Area

The AACA project In 2013, in recognition of the changes occurring in the Arctic and the need for Arctic communities and governments to respond to them, the Arctic Council launched the Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic (AACA) project. Its aim is to enable more informed, timely, and responsive decision-making at the local and regional level by integrating knowledge across different regions and fields of expertise. The study focuses on the diverse challenges faced by residents, sectors and economies in the Arctic, and the adaptations that they have begun to plan and implement in response to the rapid changes taking place, as well as those expected in the future. It also provides key strategies and tools intended to inform decision-makers about possibilities for helping their communities adapt to future change. The Barents area The geographic study area includes the Barents Sea as well as the adjacent terrestrial areas, and Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. Thus, the study area is broader than the ‘Barents Region’ as defined by the Barents Euro-Arctic Council (BEAC; www.beac.st/en). This report sometimes also covers the neighboring regions of Yamalo-Nenets. Climatically, the region is heavily influenced by its proximity to the sea and its high latitude. The North Atlantic Current (a northern branch of the Gulf Stream) makes the entire Barents area far warmer than comparable areas at similar latitudes, but parts of the region still possess glaciers, permafrost and environmental features typical of the Arctic. Ecologically, the Barents area largely comprises boreal forest, which makes up 54% of the mainland area, with alpine and Arctic tundra accounting for 20%. Glaciers constitute about 4% of the land area, and there are abundant and wide-ranging freshwater ecosystems and open wetlands. The Barents Sea hosts more than 200 species of fish and the most species-rich marine mammal community in the circumpolar Arctic, reflecting the rich seasonal productivity of the continental shelf. The area also supports some of the largest concentrations of seabirds in the world.The region is rich in renewable and non-renewable resources. These form the basis for forestry, fisheries, mining, agriculture and the hydrocarbon industry, as well as tourism and local and indigenous economic activities such as herding, hunting and gathering. This highly varied region is inhabited by 5.5 million people, including indigenous peoples (Sámi, Nenets, and Veps) as well as many other groups. In terms of the primary sector, forestry is important in Sweden, Finland and northwestern Russia, while fishing and energy (mainly oil and gas) are important in northern Norway andnorthwesternRussia.The area is an important source of hydroelectricity, both for local use and for export outside the region. Mining is economically important in parts of each

country. Tourism and reindeer husbandry are also important locally, although these are lesser activities. However, in some areas,such as northern Finland,tourism is an important source of employment, and its importance is growing in other parts of the region.The primary sector makes a relatively small contribution to employment, but represents an important contribution to GDP in the Barents Region. About 7% of the Barents Region’s total work force is employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing and reindeer husbandry. Human activities in the Barents area have traditionally been directly coupled with resources provided by ecosystems. Today,many livelihoods entail a mix of market and non-market activities that providematerial necessities and social, cultural and spiritual needs.While non-market aspects of Arctic livelihoods are typically closely integratedwith nature and access to nature, many important market-oriented activities are also closely tied to nature. The Barents area is experiencing environmental change driven by climate change and increasing human activity, in parallel with changes in socio-economic systems driven by a range of environmental, political, societal and cultural conditions. Some changes are easy to predict – some more difficult. Some changes are rapid and obvious, while others are slower and more subtle. The interlinkages within these wide-ranging environmental and societal changes are many and complex; and some combined effects are acting synergistically, enhancing the rate or magnitude of change. Although environmental and societal changes are creating unprecedented challenges in the Barents area, opportunities for societies and their foundations are also emerging. While most adaptation takes place locally – where the changes are obvious – the regional, national and international contexts shape the configuration and opportunities for local adaption. The implications for policy and planning are substantial, and adaptation has thus become a major priority across the Barents area, in addition to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and short-lived climate forcers. National adaptation policies in the region are increasingly linked with the development of international governance that articulates common goals such as sustainable development, human security, climate change mitigation, and indigenous peoples’ rights. The Paris Agreement strengthens the policy commitments to adaptation action, and enhances the link between adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. Environmental and socio-economic changes and impacts Social and economic trends, together with projected changes in average and extreme air temperature and precipitation, sea temperature, sea level and snow and ice cover on land and at sea, play essential roles in shaping the future. These trends affect terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, peoples and societies, and economic activities and opportunities in the

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